Diploma in Risk Analysis and Monte Carlo in Planning
Online postgraduate diploma of 800 hours in risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation in planning. 8 modules covering uncertainty in planning, project risk management, statistics for risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, integrated cost and schedule analysis, decision-making and complementary methods, with an assigned technical tutor.
Take the controls.
Run a real engineering trade-off from this field. Move the sliders, watch the model react in real time and beat the challenge.
What you will be able to do
Understand the sources of uncertainty in planning.
Apply the risk management process to projects.
Use statistical distributions and expert elicitation.
Run Monte Carlo simulations on project schedules.
Calculate schedule and cost contingencies on a probabilistic basis.
Communicate risk results to support decision-making.
Produce a quantitative risk analysis report.
Who it's for
- Project risk analysts.
- Project planners.
- Risk managers.
- Project controls managers.
- Cost engineers.
- Risk consultants.
- Engineering or science graduates looking to enter the infrastructure sector.
What you'll work with
- ISO 31000:2018 (risk management guidelines)
- IEC 31010:2019 (risk assessment techniques)
- AACE RP 57R-09 (integrated cost and schedule risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation)
- AACE RP 41R-08 (risk analysis and contingency determination using range estimating)
- ISO 21502:2020 (guidance on project management)
- AACE RP 40R-08 (contingency estimating)
- GAO Schedule Assessment Guide 2015 (best practice for project schedules)
- Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis
- Safran Risk
- @RISK
- Deltek Acumen Risk
- Crystal Ball
8 modules
1.1Risk versus uncertainty1.2Variability of durations1.3Cognitive biases in estimating1.4Reliability of deterministic schedules1.5Discrete risks and estimating uncertainty1.6Merge bias effect1.7Schedule contingency1.8Risk in major projects1.9Risk management culture1.10Case study: analysis of delays in major projects
2.1The ISO 31000 process2.2Risk identification2.3Risk breakdown structure2.4Qualitative probability and impact analysis2.5Probability-impact matrices2.6Risk register2.7Responses and owners2.8Identifying and managing opportunities2.9Risk monitoring and review2.10Workshop: risk register for a tunnel
3.1Random variables and distribution functions3.2Triangular, PERT and beta distributions3.3Lognormal and uniform distributions3.4Percentiles: P50 and P803.5Correlation between variables3.6Central limit theorem3.7Confidence intervals3.8Expert judgement elicitation3.9Fitting distributions to data3.10Practical exercise: eliciting ranges with experts
4.1Fundamentals of the method4.2Random sampling and Latin hypercube4.3Number of iterations4.4Modelling activity ranges4.5Discrete risks in the schedule4.6Probabilistic branching in the schedule4.7Activity correlation4.8Interpreting histograms4.9Sensitivity analysis and tornado charts4.10Lab: simulating a schedule in Primavera Risk
5.1Schedule quality for analysis5.2Integrated cost-schedule analysis5.3Schedule and cost contingency5.4Joint scatter diagrams5.5Criticality and sensitivity indices5.6Identifying dominant risks5.7Response analysis5.8Mitigation scenarios5.9Analysis reports5.10Workshop: integrated analysis of a road project
6.1Presenting results to senior management6.2Confidence levels and target dates6.3Contingency management6.4Management reserves6.5Investment decisions under risk6.6Periodic reviews of the analysis6.7Integration with governance6.8Interpretation errors6.9The risk narrative6.10Practical exercise: executive report on schedule risk
7.1Decision trees7.2Expected value analysis7.3Bayesian networks for dependent risks7.4Reference class forecasting7.5Classic PERT method and its limitations7.6Discrete-event simulation7.7Real options valuation7.8Scenario analysis7.9Comparison of methods7.10Case study: decision tree for a construction method
8.1Project definition8.2Schedule review8.3Risk register8.4Uncertainty ranges8.5Simulation model8.6Results and sensitivity8.7Response plan8.8Executive report of results8.9Report and presentation8.10Final project: final review with the tutor
How you'll learn
100% online training on the SEIUM campus, with downloadable materials, recorded classes and an assigned technical tutor. There are no fixed timetables: you progress at your own pace within each intake, so the programme can be combined with work.
Each module combines theory, guided reading of the original standards and applied exercises. The working software is Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis, Safran Risk, @RISK, Deltek Acumen Risk and Crystal Ball, in free, academic or evaluation versions. Exercises are based on real procedures such as a Monte Carlo simulation of a tunnel schedule, an integrated analysis of cost and schedule contingency and the elicitation of duration ranges with experts. Assessment is continuous by module, plus the final integrative project.
Standards covered: ISO 31000:2018; IEC 31010:2019; AACE RP 57R-09; AACE RP 41R-08; ISO 21502:2020; AACE RP 40R-08; GAO Schedule Assessment Guide 2015.
Build it end to end
Your final project follows the real engineering workflow, step by step, reviewed by your tutor.
Where this takes you
Requirements
- Prior technical training or professional experience in the sector. No university degree is required.
- An internet connection and a computer capable of running the programme software.
- English sufficient to read technical standards.
Ready to start?
Send your application today. Our admissions team replies within 72 hours with your study plan and funding options.
Frequently asked questions
The programme totals 800 hours over 6–8 months. You set your own pace within each intake, and your tutor helps you plan the workload around your job.
You work with Oracle Primavera Risk Analysis, Safran Risk, @RISK, Deltek Acumen Risk and Crystal Ball, using free, academic or evaluation versions. Your tutor indicates the free alternative wherever one exists.
A SEIUM Institute diploma, awarded on passing the continuous assessment and the final project. It is SEIUM's own qualification, not an official state degree; its recognition depends on the programme completed and the regulations of each country.
Yes. Modules passed are recognised in a higher programme in the same area (postgraduate diploma or master's). Ask about the recognition policy when you enrol.
Prior technical training or professional experience in the sector (no university degree required), a computer able to run the programme software and English sufficient to read technical standards.
Start dates are set by SEIUM's faculty for each intake. Our admissions team will confirm the next available date when you apply.
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